Another (different) Take on Value
About the Author: Nicole Murray just finished her rookie season with the The Gnats. She works for DC’s other professional, though less successful, wiffleball organization, the Washington Nationals. While she throws and hits like a girl, she plays poker and talks stats like a man.
Author’s note: Am I biased? Sure (but aren’t we all?). Are people just going to vote for their teammates/friends? Probably. But for all you stat geeks out there, this is worth another look.
Jake Tomko brought up that “if your team can lose despite your great stats, they surely can lose without you.” But let’s look at the flip side. Wouldn’t the Most Valuable Player be the one that his or her team can’t win without?
This season, not including forfeits, the Gnats went 4-6 with Eamon Murray in the lineup. Outstanding? Hardly. But when you consider that all-time, the Gnats are 0-29 (not including forfeits) without Eamon in the lineup, he is literally the player his team can’t win without.
You might tack those numbers up to coincidence and the law of averages that the Gnats had to win eventually. Manager Kathryn Poindexter will tell you you’re wrong. Not convinced? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.
(Stat Porn Alert)
A closer look at the numbers for each player shows their value if removed from the lineup, indicated as +OPS (essentially the player’s OPS minus the team’s OPS if the player’s stats were removed).
Keeven
Avg: .468
Slg: 1.032
Fear and Loathing without Keevan:
Avg: .339
Slg: .628
Keeven’s +OPS: .529
Thaman
Avg: .507
Slg: .901
Fear and Loathing without Thaman:
Avg: .316
Slg: .661
Thaman’s +OPS: .431
DiCrosta
Avg: .500
Slg: 1.117
Scared Hitless without DiCrosta:
Avg: .360
Slg: .746
DiCrosta’s +OPS: .511
Shannon
Avg: .431
Slg: 1.000
Barnburners without Shannon:
Avg: .364
Slg: .705
Shannon’s +OPS: .362
Murray
Avg: .459
Slg: .803
Gnats without Murray:
Avg: .196
Slg: .313
Murray’s +OPS: .753
On top of having a +OPS 224 points higher than anyone else in the field, Eamon allowed 1 or fewer runs in 6 of 10 starts (run support got him only 1 win out of these Starts) including a 20 inning shutout in the Gnats first-ever win. He finished with 81 Ks (4th all-time) in 71.5 innings pitched. He also played 20.5 error-free innings at 1B (10 PO).
Moving over to defense, let’s take a look at position played, something heavily skewed by personal experience and opinion. Are Eamon’s starts more valuable to the team than Nick’s 31 innings on the mound, usually as a closer? How about if we stack it up against Jim’s 16 innings at 1B (just 2 PO) or .988 FP in 63 innings behind the plate? Thaman’s pitching and defense were exceptional, but is he even the most valuable player on his own team? The fact that there are two Fear and Loathing players on the list has to make you question whether either can be the MVP of the league. Keevan’s value at the plate was considerable, but his 3 Errors against 5 PO/A when not behind the plate have to be taken into consideration if you are looking at stats on both sides.
It comes down to what you base Most Valuable Player on. Offense? Vote Nick. His numbers are certainly better. Defense? Thaman’s defensive value was the greatest with just 1 Error against 31 PO to go with 70 Ks and a .255 OBA in 55 innings on the mound. But if you follow the school of thought that the MVP award should consider all parts of the game (offense, defense, and pitching), then vote for Eamon.
Andrew McCutcheon, Jun 29, 05:25 PM:
Sweet, by this logic it looks like I’m winning the MVP this year also. Who cares about my .299-7-24 stat line. The rest of my team sucks way worse!
JonG, Jun 29, 06:44 PM:
That’s an impressive list of stats but I stopped reading at SLG. So Eamon should win MVP because he is the only player in Gnats history without a vagina? I don’t think so. Being the best player on a mediocre team doesn’t win the MVP unless this is 1987 and that player’s name is Andre Dawson.
BB Nation, Jun 29, 06:48 PM:
Shannon, the Barnburners candidate, touched him up for 3 bombs in their only meeting. men lie, women lie, stats lie, the barnburners don’t
BB Nation, Jun 29, 10:01 PM:
Eamon is like Jimmy in the movie the ringer
Nick D, Jun 30, 11:26 AM:
If good looks and charm matter too, I’m your guy.
Please vote for my husband, Jun 30, 12:30 PM:
My name says it all. Dont worry eveyone, we’ve been shutting off our iPhones for days now. There’s no way anyone is going to catch up to big E.
Nicole, Jun 30, 12:55 PM:
You have a valid argument Jon. It comes down to how you determine largest value. Largest value to an individual team, largest value to the league? If Strasburg is the MVP of the Nats, and the Nats have a losing season, can he be considered league MVP?
I have an impersonator. Feels like I’ve finally made it!
Eamon, Jun 30, 01:08 PM:
Females only played 13 games combined this season for the Gnats versus 45 games played by guys, so actually Jon’s arguement would be false.
Eamon, Jun 30, 01:22 PM:
Also, players on “mediocre” teams win the post-season awards fairly often. Dawson and A-Rod (‘03) are the only people to be on “last-place” teams and still win MVP.
Gravy Train, Jun 30, 02:48 PM:
I feel like I’m taking crazy pills! Anyone voting for Eamon is proof that evolution can go in reverse.
Being the best player on a terrible team doesn’t make you the most valuable player in the league. It makes you an attractive free agent.
Homeslice wasn’t valuable enough to help his team win, while the other 4 guys were. Your stat porn is really just intended to distract from the other more tangible evaluators, like RBI, R, HR, AVG. When it comes down to it, Eamon didn’t plate runs.
In the majors, a 3rd place MVP finish is how last place team MVP candidates are rewarded. I’m ok with giving Eamon that, because Thaman is too damn tall and Keeven too damn… good…. for me to like.
Eamon, Jun 30, 04:15 PM:
Actually thanks to Bill James, many (most?) teams now used Sabremetrics to evaluate players and have shied away from many traditional stats like Wins, Runs, RBI, Fielding Percentage, and even ERA in favor of On-Base Percentage, Slugging Percentage, OPS+, Fielding Independent Pitching, Ultimate Zone Rating, and Wins Above Replacement. (check out fangraphs.com’s advanced tab)
I’d be happy with 3rd place. It’s an honor just to be nominated with people as good looking and charming as Nick, as good as Keeven, as tall as Thaman, and who hit as many homers off me as Jim.
Cheers
bb nation, Jun 30, 07:19 PM:
Well we won the one thing that matters and cannot be rigged online by bitter losing teams. So you can take your MVP with an asterisk, we are too busy planning on hosting a champions dinner to vote a thousand times.
Pump your brakes, Jun 30, 08:14 PM:
Are you seriously comparing yourself to a rod and the hawk? The thing is, they led the league in several catergories, eamon helped a team win 4 games and didn’t lead the league in anything. You can manipulate stats to say anything, just like they manipulated the votng, but bottom line is, he is no mvp
Hooray reading comprehension!, Jun 30, 10:13 PM:
Try reading again. I didn’t compare myself to A-rod and Dawson, I corrected someone’s earlier post. Dawson wasn’t the only player on a last place team to win, and I would never compare myself to A-Rod. I’m a Red Sox fan.